Research companion for Olszak, Godlewski, Kowalska & Paciorek (2026)

Macroprudential Policy and Net Interest Margins in European banks

How macroprudential tightening changes the price of financial intermediation - immediately and over the following two years.

3,000European banks
28EU countries
1996-2019sample period
~2,000policy actions in MaPPED

Research question

How do prudential interventions change bank interest margins?

Net interest margins (NIMs) are both a core bank-profitability indicator and a measure of the cost of financial intermediation. The paper studies whether macroprudential policy changes alter NIMs, their income and funding-cost components, and the time profile of the response.

Tightening macroprudential policy lowers bank net interest margins, with effects that differ across time and instruments.

Immediate effect

On average, tightening is associated with a 2 basis point decline in NIMs in the implementation year.

Dynamic response

Income and funding-cost components initially rise, then both decline one to two years later.

Heterogeneous effects

Instrument type, bank capitalization, and credit risk shape the observed response.

Transmission channel

Margins reflect a changing balance between income and funding costs.

The paper decomposes NIM into interest income to earning assets (IIEA) and interest expense to earning assets (IEEA), revealing why a headline margin response can change direction over time.

01 - POLICY

Macroprudential tightening

A narrative policy index captures changes in the overall stance and in five types of national instruments.

02 - BANK PRICING

Interest income and expense

Immediately, IIEA rises by 7 bp and IEEA by almost 10 bp. One to two years later, both decline, with the income component especially important.

03 - OUTCOME

Net interest margin

Higher funding costs drive the immediate contraction; later adjustments determine changes in the NIM level and its variation.

Empirical design

A dynamic, bank-level view of policy transmission.

The analysis combines bank financial data with the ECB’s MaPPED policy database and estimates fixed-effects specifications with bank-clustered standard errors, separating policy-year, one-year, and two-year responses.

Outcomes

NIM level, one- and two-year NIM changes, and their IIEA and IEEA components.

Policy measure

An index of tightening and loosening actions, alongside separate instrument categories.

Bank conditions

Capital adequacy, lending orientation, loan-loss provisions, and non-performing loans capture risk and balance-sheet differences.

Context

Bank, industry, and macroeconomic controls; high/low-rate environments and pre/post-crisis checks.

Main evidence

Policy tightening compresses margins, but its timing matters.

The results distinguish a short-run cost channel from medium-term adjustments in both income and funding costs.

-2 bp

Immediate NIM response

Tightening is associated with a 2 basis point reduction in NIMs at implementation, driven primarily by higher interest expense to earning assets.

-10.5 bp

Income after two years

Interest income to earning assets declines by 10.5 basis points one to two years after a policy change.

-10.1 bp

Funding cost after two years

Interest expense to earning assets also declines, by 10.1 basis points, as the medium-term adjustment unfolds.

Effect sizes summarize the published abstract and baseline results. They describe associations estimated within the study’s empirical design.

Instrument mix

The choice of tool matters for timing and channel.

Rather than treating all macroprudential actions as interchangeable, the paper studies five policy groups with distinct immediate and medium-term relationships to NIMs.

Lending standards

Reduce NIMs immediately, largely through higher funding costs.

Taxes and levies

Show positive NIM-level responses in the implementation year and after two years.

Credit growth limits

Increase NIMs in the medium term through the income component.

Liquidity & currency rules

Reduce NIMs in the medium term, especially through lower interest income.

Loan-loss provisioning

Reduces NIM in the policy year and affects the dynamics of margin variation.

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Open-access article

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Citation

Olszak, Małgorzata, Christophe Godlewski, Iwona Kowalska, and Agnieszka Paciorek. (2026). “Macroprudential Policy and Net Interest Margins in European banks.” Journal of Financial Services Research, 70, 1-52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-025-00449-x

@article{Olszak2026Macroprudential,
 author={Olszak, Małgorzata and Godlewski, Christophe and Kowalska, Iwona and Paciorek, Agnieszka},
 title={Macroprudential Policy and Net Interest Margins in European banks},
 journal={Journal of Financial Services Research}, year={2026}, volume={70}, pages={1--52}, doi={10.1007/s10693-025-00449-x}
}